Lord Narf-Um-What-Brain-Lumpford-Something-Shire ([info]remjte) wrote,
@ 2009-01-28 17:29:00
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Why we're doomed.
President Obama's $825 (maybe more) Billion Spending Debacle is about to pass the House.

In this, the 111th Congress, Democrats have a 79 vote advantage (if you include the two "independents" who basically vote with Democrats anyway), 257 to 178, over Republicans.

A simple majority in the House is 218.

This means NO bill can pass the House without at least SOME Democrats on board: Period.

In debating the 2009 spend-a-thon, an amendment was offered up by Jeff Flake of Arizona. After Ron Paul, Flake's probably the most Constitutional member in the House. Not only did his amendment fail, but 61 Republicans voted AGAINST it.

A 2/3 majority in the House is 290. Democrats barely need to siphon 33 Republicans to get to 2/3. They got 61, nearly double that, to vote against Flake.

The only opposition a Democrat agenda MIGHT see in the House is on something need a 3/4 majority.

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[info]operations
2009-01-29 02:07 am UTC (link)
You act surprised?

All we can do is weather the storm for the next 4 years, and hope people get smarter as they get poorer...

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[info]remjte
2009-01-29 03:01 am UTC (link)
Not remotely surprised.

I'm just putting the numbers out there so everyone knows to not even bother getting there hopes up until after the 2010 mid-terms, if even then.

Senate Republicans, if they all hold together, can still fillibuster, but House Republicans have virtually no purpose whatsoever at this point. The best they can do is make valid points to influence the people to try to pressure some Democrats. If they can't even keep their own together, I don't see them pulling any over.

But, it's 2 years. All 435 seats are up. Post-census redistricting won't take effect until the 2012 election, so efforts should focus on the critical/swing districts. Safe districts can largely hold their own to begin with and safe opposition districts aren't really worth trying in.

Of course, last night I came up with a plan to do away with safe districts completely.
We should have mandatory redistricting done with every election cycle. If you want to run for an office, you file for that office w/o knowing which district you're in much less who your opponent may be. No one is safe.

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[info]nighthawkal
2009-01-29 08:27 am UTC (link)
In the House, you only need a 2/3 majority to override a veto? RIght? I don't think you need a 3/4 majority for anything. Right?

As for 2 Independents. Aren't they Joe Lieberman and the Senator from Vermont?

As for the 2010 elections. I think back in 1994, the Democrats had a similar majority in the House and had, I think 56 or 57 seats in the Senate. If Obama and the Democrats mess up, the Republicans can pick up House seats, but the Senate is going to be tough and they are going to need a lot of Democrats up for election to get a lot of negative press. Nevada and Colorado are possible, but the Republicans need to find a legitimate candidate. NY and Illinois may be possible because they have appointed Senators running for statewide office, I think, for the first time. I think Sen. Dodd in CT may be beatable because I think he did some ethically questionable things.

Of course, Republicans will have open seats that they need to defend in at least FLorida, Ohio, and Missouri. NC's Republican seat may also be a possibility for the Democrats considering Dole lost re-election there and Obama actually won the state. Of course, a lot of Obama's voters in NC may not vote this time since he isn't on the ticket.

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[info]remjte
2009-01-29 08:49 am UTC (link)
Okay, so the reason 3/4 comes to mind is because it's 3/4 of the states required to pass an amendment (2/3 of the legislatures or 2/3 of both chambers of Congress can introduce and propose the amendment, but it must be voted on by the people and pass in 3/4 of the states).

Lieberman and Sanders are both "independent" and they're also both in the Senate. This is the House I'm talking about. Maybe it was just C-SPAN's error.

Dodd's not going anywhere until he quits. If Connecticut was ever going to get rid of him they'd have done so by now.

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